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And what I did is, I looked at estimations of network effects, and said, well, do they look similar? And when you plot out Bitcoin’s journey, its market cap, or its price versus the number of active wallets, actually, there’s a nice, clear regression line, and it happens after a certain period of time. You know, again, I’m a macro guy, so I don’t have the engineering background that Lyn has, but how I approach this is, I look at the attributes of how it trades as an asset. Raoul, in January you tweeted, “ETH=BTC, like it or not.” What do you mean by that, and how did you come to that conclusion? Welcome, Lyn and Raoul.īoth of you are widely respected for your financial analysis and views, and you’re also both known for being big believers in Bitcoin, and yet, you two have opposite views on the value of Ether, which is the asset native to the Ethereum network. Here to discuss are Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, and Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor and Real Vision Group.

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Today’s topic, plus a bonus topic, but today’s topic is ETH as an investable asset.

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whether r/WallStreetBets’ behavior was market manipulation or not (56:53).

how the GameStop/Robinhood saga is a giant advertisement for self-custody (54:53).

how blockchain technology could be used to prevent a situation in which the hedge funds could short more shares than existed (54:03).

whether smart contracts could play in preventing situations similar to what happened with GameStop and/or Robinhood (49:03).

what GameStop says about the democratization of financial information (45:32).

Raoul’s and Lyn’s predictions for the ETH price by end of 2021 (41:45).

how the regulators are behind innovation in cryptocurrencies, particularly around taxation (36:32).

how Lyn believes demand for DeFi is to circumvent compliance and know-your-customer processes, and she doesn’t also see that as a downside for Bitcoin (33:10).

how high fees make DApps less attractive, while low fees potentially decrease demand for ETH (27:06).

Raoul’s views on what S-Curves and the Lindy Effect indicate about the development of a currency (25:22).

the impact of fees on the value of Ethereum (23:36).

whether Ethereum 2.0 and Ethereum Improvement Proposal 1559, and whether that could make ETH more investable (21:20).

why Lyn views Ethereum’s use case as circular, and why that makes it less investable (15:09).

whether Metcalfe’s law applies equally to all kinds of networks (13:35).

why Raoul also invested in other coins beyond BTC and ETH (11:47).

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how to allocate between BTC and ETH (11:22).counterarguments to John Pfeffer’s paper (9:31).an analysis of utility protocols (John Pfeffer’s paper) (6:55).why Lyn decided ETH was not currently investable (5:06).why Raoul views ether as similar to bitcoin at a macro level (1:25).Lyn Alden, CEO and founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategies, and Raoul Pal, CEO & cofounder of Real Vision Group & Global Macro Investor, explain their thinking about Ethereum and its native token, and talk about their perspective on GameStop.